Syria Civil War: What’s Next for the Region and Trump

Syria Civil War: How Can a Militarised Society with a Battle-Ready Army Collapse in Just a Week?

After successfully vanquishing the militants of the Islamic State and Turkey-backed rebels in 2016, the fighters of the Syrian Arab Army were considered to be a formidable fighting force that had built a reputation for influencing events in the Middle East. On November 27, when the second-largest city of Syria, Aleppo, fell without much of a fight against an entity cloned by the covert operatives of the U.S. and Israel from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda variant – Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by Abu Muhammad al-Golani, the big question is: How did a nation with such a formidable, battle-hardened military crumble like a cookie?

Was the army made to stand down to allow HTS and its Islamist boss to take over Syria without a fight? This is what it seems, as the speed at which the army refused to resist the takeover by HTS and the Salvation Front, which rules Idlib province, suggests that some deal had taken place either at the level of the army or with President Bashar al-Assad, allowing him to leave the country unhurt. That's the reason one city after another began to fall after the Aleppo takeover was announced. The rapid downfall of President Assad was similar to the quick escapes enabled by army help in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and later Bangladesh. In all three countries, different shades of authoritarian figures ruled without being effectively challenged by a diminished opposition.

Syria's plot does not seem any different from what happened in South Asian countries, but it seems to have a twist.
Not too long ago, the U.S. government had announced a $10 million bounty for Abu Muhammad al-Golani's head. Counter-terrorism specialists say that if the U.S. agencies were serious about killing him, a drone would have blown him up a long time ago, and the bounty would have been shared. Clearly, it was not intended, as Golani was allowed not only to live but to dream big. He was built up as a reformed militant who wanted to preserve the plural character of society and restore democracy in a civil war-battered nation, Syria. To prettify the takeover, Golani's exploits were also scrubbed clean from the YouTube world, leaving no evidence of his violent past.

Syria Civil War: Why is Biden Desperate to Change the Contours of the Middle East?

In the interim, the CIA, Mossad, and MI6 seemed to have done their bit to oust Bashar al-Assad and pave the way for a burgeoning new Middle East order before the new U.S. President Donald Trump took charge. Why is the incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden so desperate to change the contours of the Middle East and also Europe, where Russia is fighting a war against Ukraine? Not only has Biden encouraged Israel to ferociously retaliate against Hamas for daring to attack on October 7, 2023, but the Pentagon has given the Jewish nation all kinds of support, including unlimited supplies of weapons and funds. With both material and moral support, Israel, under its Prime Minister Netanyahu, has not only bombed Gaza out of shape but also gone into Lebanon while chasing the Shia militants, Hezbollah. For many days, Lebanon was also bombed like Gaza. In its early attack, the Israel Defense Forces took out Hezbollah chief Nasrallah through relentless use of bunker-buster bombs.

Without much fuss, the Israeli Defense Forces showed accommodation after refusing to relent in Gaza, despite being punished by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for being involved in a genocide against the Palestinians. At that time, no one really knew why the Israelis had agreed to a ceasefire. It was only when HTS captured Aleppo that the haze began to clear. It seems Israel, the U.S., and Turkey were in cahoots to oust Assad, and with competing forces eyeing different parts of the country based on their own reading of history, the Middle East may not be together again. Israel has unveiled its ambitions—Golan Heights, Mt. Hermon, and more. Last heard, Israeli forces are 15 km from the capital Damascus. If Israelis take over Syria, then how will the Middle East look? What then truly happens to Iran? The speed at which all this is happening makes analysts breathless. What to write and what to leave out?

What is not really discussed are the implications of the Syria civil war on Russia, which is at war with Ukraine. Moscow has been squeezed by the U.S. sanctions and military support by NATO forces. Moscow was deeply invested in Assad’s continuance as the Russian Navy has ports in Tartus and Latakia. Thousands of Russians also stay in Syria. Tweezing out Syria from its control is meant to convey to Russia that it can be hurt if it does not withdraw from Ukraine and Crimea. Russia has its back against the wall, even when social media is full of conspiracy theories of how Assad was dumped by Russian President Putin as he could not be trusted. If there was any merit in this, then why has Assad been given asylum by Russia? What is clear is that the Syrian President Assad knew that his time was up. He tried to salvage his position by reaching out to intermediaries who were asking Syria to leave Iran. Some unconfirmed reports claim that Iranian intelligence had told Assad about the impending threat coming from Idlib and Turkey, but the Syrian President did not pay heed. It seems he had been softened by the forces that were wheeling in Golani. Some social media posts attributing their information to Iranian sources claim that Tehran realised that Assad was playing some other game and he had no desire to fight the incoming forces.

Syria Civil War: What Happens Now?

What is evident now is that Israel and Turkey are leveraging the Syria civil war to fulfill their long-held agendas. Israel is fortifying its position and systematically neutralising any remaining Syrian military capacity. It has targeted and destroyed chemical weapons and ammunition stores. With no resistance from Syria, Israel is poised to capture Damascus. Whether this happens will largely depend on how President Joe Biden chooses to approach the issue.

Turkey, meanwhile, is playing a complex game. Russia appears to have been outmaneuvered by Turkey and its shrewd leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Driven by aspirations of a new Ottoman resurgence, Turkey is eager to expand its territorial influence, with Syria serving as the first step. Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia is deeply concerned about these developments, as they disrupt the regional balance and provide excessive leverage to Turkey, whose ambitions could grow unchecked.

These shifts in Syria will undoubtedly pose massive challenges for the incoming U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly regarding his stance on the "deep state," which some claim is behind the endless global conflicts.

As for the current U.S. President Joe Biden, the question remains: what will he do in his final month in office? Will he take further steps to undermine Russia before his tenure ends?

This article first appeared on Sanjay Kapoor's Substack. Here is the original link to the source. To follow Sanjay Kapoor  on Substack, click here.