Trump 2.0: US Realpolitik and Redefining Indo-US Relations

Trump 2.0: The Second Presidency and its Challenges for India

As Donald Trump begins his second term as President, the political and geopolitical landscape of the United States is poised for massive transformation. Trump's return signals a potential shift in the US's realpolitik, which could bring about much-needed recalibrations in its domestic and international strategies. This stands in stark contrast to the Biden administration, where the trajectory of US-India relations and broader US foreign policy was often critiqued as being overly idealistic and lacking pragmatic realism.

From Biden to Trump 2.0: A Shift in Strategy

Donald Trump's dramatic exit from power in 2021 paved the way for Joe Biden’s administration to redefine the US's role on the global stage. Biden’s presidency adopted a measured and restrained approach to international politics, which inadvertently allowed emerging powers like China and Russia to gain leverage. This restraint arguably contributed to the strengthening of an informal alliance among US adversaries, colloquially dubbed the "PRICK" bloc—comprising Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan.

Domestically, Biden’s administration also faced criticism for several missteps. Policies like the American Rescue Plan, while ambitious, fueled inflationary pressures, straining the economy. Additionally, Biden's energy strategy—particularly the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline—left the US energy sector vulnerable, especially during the disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine war.

Policy Failures That Defined the Biden Era

Two major domestic policy failures stand out from Biden’s tenure. The first was the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, envisioned in 2021 as a counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and as a tool to stabilise regional economies post-COVID-19. Despite its promise, the plan floundered due to internal party dissent, culminating in a legislative blockade that stalled its progress.

The second failure was the alarming rise in crime rates during Biden’s presidency. A Department of Justice report cited by Fox News revealed a dramatic surge in violent crimes under the Biden-Harris administration, undermining the administration’s credibility on public safety issues.

These socio-economic challenges, coupled with declining US influence on the global stage, have underscored the urgency for a reset. Trump 2.0 and his return to the White House brings with it the potential to redefine the US's domestic policies and reclaim its geopolitical dominance.

US Realpolitik: A Strategic Reset Under Trump 2.0

The United States' realpolitik has long been shaped by two central features: maintaining influence and competing with rising global powers. Throughout the Cold War, the US's deep state, particularly the CIA, played a key role in pushing back against Soviet influence, using covert operations and strategic maneuvers. However, the course of US realpolitik was not solely defined by this deep state. Democratic presidents, particularly John F. Kennedy and Gerald Ford, significantly influenced the nation’s global approach, sometimes even challenging the interests of the intelligence community.

Kennedy’s presidency, for instance, saw hesitation in utilizing the CIA as a primary tool for foreign policy. His decision to slash its budget hampered the agency's effectiveness in shaping US foreign strategy during the early Cold War years. Similarly, Ford's pursuit of the Soviet-US détente drew considerable criticism, even from within his administration. His Secretary of Defense, James Schlesinger, was a vocal critic of the policy, which many analysts saw as a misstep. Détente is now viewed as a strategic failure, especially after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, a direct consequence of the policy’s shortcomings. Ford also faced domestic fallout when the CIA’s covert surveillance program, Operation CHAOS, was exposed, undermining public trust in the agency’s operations.

Bill Clinton, while attempting to recalibrate US foreign policy post-Cold War, adopted a “measured” response similar to his predecessors. His administration focused primarily on domestic policy and trade, encapsulated by the doctrine of enlargement, which aimed to promote democracy and the US market globally. However, the doctrine resulted in notable failures, such as the US’s inability to restore democracy in Somalia following Operation Gothic Serpent and the Clinton administration’s failure to intervene effectively during the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The 1993 failure to oust Haiti's military dictator, Raoul Cedras, further demonstrated the limitations of this "measured" approach.

These historical missteps have echoes in the Biden administration's tenure. Biden's attempt to reset US strategy with an assertive, strategic approach post-Trump was marred by miscalculations. His renegotiation of the JCPOA with Iran, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and blunders in Europe and the Middle East weakened the US's geopolitical position, reminiscent of the failures during the Cold War and Clinton’s presidency. Trump 2.0 promises a more assertive and strategically focused response to many global challenges. 

Trump 2.0 offers the possibility of easing tensions within the transatlantic security framework, providing greater autonomy to European nations to determine their own strategic and defense paths. Under Biden, US involvement in European matters caused friction, particularly with France, as Washington’s extensive engagement created strain. Critics may argue that Trump’s assertive response could risk abandoning Ukraine, but such an approach could also allow the US to focus on strengthening European security and countering Russia’s growing influence.

Trump’s first presidency effectively used an assertive strategy to manage the shifting geopolitical landscape. His administration kept China in check and restrained Russia without overly damaging US relations. These strategic adjustments are expected to continue in Trump 2.0, particularly in the Middle East. The space Biden’s administration gave to Iran will likely shrink under Trump, enabling the US to take a firmer stance against Tehran and rebuild strategic relationships with key Middle Eastern powers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As Trump’s second term unfolds, the world will watch closely to see how the US recalibrates its geopolitical priorities in the face of evolving global crises. 

The notion that Donald Trump will dismantle the so-called "Deep State" is a widely overestimated argument. The reality is that rooting out the Deep State within the US is nearly impossible. Instead, it is essential for this entity to maintain a minimum level of functional relationship with the executive branch, as it plays a crucial role in steering US realpolitik in an assertive, strategic direction. During Trump’s first term, the Deep State operated with a minimal functional relationship. Even as Trump appointed Gina Haspel, the first woman to serve as deputy director of the CIA and later CIA director in 2018, despite significant opposition from senators, it was clear that the Deep State continued to function without major disruption under Trump’s leadership.

Indo-US Relationship: Continuity and Change Under Trump 2.0

The Indo-US relationship, currently on a positive trajectory, is poised for further growth under Trump’s second administration. The strategic partnership between the two nations has gained significant momentum, and Trump is expected to accelerate this upward trajectory with positive shifts in US policy. Unlike the Biden administration, which struggled to fully understand India's strategic priorities, the Trump administration is likely to demonstrate a more nuanced understanding of India’s interests, particularly in key areas of mutual concern. This shift will help overcome some of the trust issues that have emerged from the US’s vocal stance on India's internal affairs in recent years.

However, trade relations between the US and India are unlikely to see significant changes. Trump’s “America First” trade policy, as evidenced by his approach to Harley Davidson bikes and high tariff issues, will continue to complicate trade relations between the two countries. The focus will likely remain on recalibrating the economic exchange to fit the broader strategic goals of both nations, but the contentious issues of trade tariffs and market access will persist.

Trump 2.0 will require a recalibrated approach to address the nation's declining influence on the global stage. This shift, from a restrained and measured approach to a more assertive strategy, will be rooted in the lessons learned from past failures.