Why the Modi Trump Playbook Won’t Survive a Democratic House

The Midterm Storm That Caught the Modi Trump Friendship Off Guard

TV news channels opposed to US President Donald Trump, like CNN, gave enough hints that a serious mauling awaited the President and his Republican party when the midterm elections took place in November 2026. Trump would have none of these dire predictions, which diminished him in his own eyes and in those of his aggressive following, which had promised to make “America great again”. CNN had been banished from the White House, and its anchor, Kaitlan Collins, had been bad-mouthed and prevented from entering the hallowed portals of Trump’s chamber, where he usually held forth on the US and his warped view of the world. 

Also Read:  US Midterm Elections: How a Blue Wave Turned Into a Tsunami

Trump did not read the ground well. He did not draw conclusions from the defeat experienced by the right-wing candidate in Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro. He failed to acknowledge that there was a fierce left-wing wave sweeping the world and that there was little space for anyone mouthing platitudinous calls for making America great again. The message was clear: you cannot make the US, or anywhere else, great if there are no jobs for its young people and no cheap energy. Both these issues were compromised by the US’s misplaced war against Iran and the closure of the energy transit corridor, the Strait of Hormuz.

All those who said Trump had harmed the reputation of his country by entering a meaningless war at Israel’s behest proved to be prescient. Republicans lost everywhere they put their reputation at stake. They were beaten in Senate races they had long taken for granted, from North Carolina and Ohio to Iowa and Maine, and in the House races the margin of defeat was unbelievable.  For the first time in nearly a century, they have lost a Senate seat in the conservative state of Kansas. Not only that, a Muslim, the son of an Arab immigrant from Egypt, has won in Michigan, much to the chagrin of Donald Trump and his deputy, JD Vance.

From the standpoint of Trump and his brood, there have been so many setbacks that it’s difficult to count them. Expectedly, Vance, in a long tweet, cited the war on Iran as the main reason for this embarrassing electoral debacle, but there are reasons other than the scarcity. Two key officials in the cabinet are in a dither over the Trump midterm defeat. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State and National Security Advisor Marco Rubio are both trying to fine-tune a strategy that will make them President once Trump retires, but are unsure about the first step they should take. The Democratic winner from Michigan, Abdul, has made mincemeat of Vance and his contrived Islamophobia.

What the Modi Trump Bet Has Cost India

If there is confusion in the US about how the Trump midterm defeat will impact life in general, countries that had shoehorned their foreign policy around Donald Trump’s are at a loose end as to how they will deal with the Democrats, who are being too moralistic for their liking. India is a case in point.

From Modi, Trump had got practically everything he wanted without demur. It began with Indian illegal immigrants, who were put in chains and sent back home. More were to follow in a similar state, but the Trump administration realised that one example was enough to send hundreds back home. All these moves were then followed by the imposition of tariffs on Indian imports to the US. India did not utter a word. Clearly, it displayed patience and hoped that the Trump administration’s ire would evaporate over time, leaving the Modi Trump bonhomie intact. India may be right in its view, but surely it failed to endear itself to the administration.

There have been many issues and court cases that have sprung up, much to the chagrin of the Indian government. Many of this government’s favorites, like the Adani group, are facing problems from the US Department of Justice, the warmth of the Modi Trump years notwithstanding. Though this issue has mellowed down, the case still lingers.

On November 9, a case against the Indian NSA, AK Doval, and the former R&AW chief, Samant Goel, was revived, giving the Sikh lawyer, Pannu, permission to pursue the summons against them. Though the Indian government has rubbished the DOJ summons to the Indian officials, it is a manifestation of things not being right in India US relations.

Also Read:  India-US Trade Deal on the Brink as Washington Reopens Tariff War

Why the Modi Trump Playbook Will Not Work With the Democrats

What is likely to rankle the Narendra Modi government after the Trump midterm defeat is the commitment that the newly elected Democrats have shown to the young protestors in India led by the Cockroach Janta Party. Ro Khanna is a prominent voice in the Democratic space and a grandson of the famous secularist Amar Nath Vidyalankar, a close associate of Subhadra Joshi, who headed the secular democracy movement in the country. Ro Khanna made it clear that they would depart from the earlier position of supporting the Indian government against the US, a shift that could reshape India US relations.

The problem for the Indian government is that it will see more articulation from the likes of New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and other members of the ginger group, Democratic Socialists of America. India will find it difficult to escape its association with the right-wingers from Brazil to Israel to the US, and the Modi Trump embrace is only the most visible of these.

Picking Sides From Brazil to Israel

It is reliably learnt that in many of those countries where elections were taking place, the Indian embassies supported their right-wing opponents. The most prominent intervention was in Brazil, where Flavio Bolsonaro, India’s favourite, was contesting. The moot point is how the fourth-term winner of the presidential election, President Lula, will react to India’s messy involvement.

Similarly, India has been backing Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu. He is not only the Indian PM’s friend but also his advisor on many issues. The Indian PM visited Israel just 2 days before the US and Israel attacked Iran. It is a matter of curiosity for me as to why he decided to meet the Israeli boss just before the two countries attacked Iran.

Though the rating agencies are giving the thumbs-up to the Indian economy, the state of affairs for the BJP government in the country looks grim. With the Modi Trump equation now looking more like a liability than an asset, it remains to be seen how the two political formations, the BJP and the Congress, leverage the changed circumstances in global politics after the US, Brazil and Israel elections.