NCP Merger: Will NCP Reunite, and Which Faction Stands to Gain
NCP merger talks are gaining momentum in Maharashtra, raising questions about whether the factions will reunite and which side stands to benefit the most.
Amid the clamour surrounding the death of Ajit Pawar in a plane crash and the swearing-in of Sunetra Pawar as Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra, a larger political question has moved to the centre of the state’s discourse: whether the two factions of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) will finally reunite, and if they do, which side stands to gain the most from an NCP merger. The moment is politically charged, not only because of the sudden leadership vacuum created by Ajit Pawar’s death, but also because it forces a reassessment of the balance of power between the Ajit Pawar‑aligned NCP and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP.
History and Rise of the NCP: Formation, Alliances, and Factional Split
The NCP was founded on 10 June 1999 in New Delhi by Sharad Pawar, P. A. Sangma and Tariq Anwar after their expulsion from the Indian National Congress. The break stemmed from their opposition to Sonia Gandhi’s leadership of the Congress, particularly over the question of her foreign origin. When this position clashed with the party’s dominant line, all three leaders were expelled on 20 May 1999. Within weeks, they launched the NCP, with Sharad Pawar emerging as its principal strategist and most influential leader, shaping its ideological positioning and coalition choices from the outset.
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In the years following its formation, the NCP quickly established itself as a political force both in Maharashtra and at the national level. In the state, it entered into a long-running alliance with the Congress that delivered stable governments from 1999 through 2014. At the Centre, the party became a key partner in the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance after the 2004 general election. Sharad Pawar served as Union agriculture minister for the full ten-year tenure of the UPA governments between 2004 and 2014, a period that firmly embedded the NCP in national coalition politics.
At the state level, the NCP’s influence has been most evident during two distinct phases. From 1999 to 2014, the Congress–NCP alliance governed Maharashtra for three consecutive terms, with Congress chief ministers and senior NCP leaders controlling important portfolios. After a spell in opposition, the party returned to power in 2019 as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), formed with the Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena. This post-poll alliance was explicitly non-BJP and reaffirmed the NCP’s role as a central pillar of opposition politics in Maharashtra.
The relationship between Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the BJP has largely been defined by rivalry, with one limited tactical exception. Following the 2014 Maharashtra assembly election, the NCP offered outside support to the BJP to facilitate government formation. Sharad Pawar later described this as a short-term political manoeuvre rather than an ideological partnership, aimed at shaping post-election equations rather than aligning with the BJP. The support was brief and did not evolve into a formal alliance.
The internal split that now defines the party occurred in July 2023, when Ajit Pawar led a group of NCP legislators into the BJP-led Mahayuti government in Maharashtra and took oath as deputy chief minister. Sharad Pawar rejected the move and retained his faction’s position within the opposition MVA. In early 2024, the Election Commission recognised Ajit Pawar’s group as the official NCP, awarding it the party name and symbol, while Sharad Pawar’s faction came to be known as NCP (Sharad Pawar). This division reshaped Maharashtra’s political landscape and altered coalition arithmetic.
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NCP Merger Talks: Reconciling Factions and Planning Leadership
Talk of an NCP merger, however, predates Ajit Pawar’s death. Senior leaders from both factions have acknowledged that discussions on reunification were underway months earlier. The two groups even coordinated during the civic elections in Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, signalling a tentative political rapprochement. By several accounts, Ajit Pawar himself had been actively involved in pushing for unity, engaging with his uncle Sharad Pawar and other senior leaders as negotiations progressed.
Leaders from the Sharad Pawar faction have since stated that these discussions reached an advanced stage before Ajit Pawar’s death. Jayant Patil, a senior NCP (Sharad Pawar) leader, has spoken publicly about multiple meetings held at his residence, during which Ajit Pawar expressed a desire to move past the split and strengthen the party in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar has also confirmed that a tentative timeline for reunification had been discussed, underlining that the idea of unity was not a posthumous political construct but an ongoing process.
Following Ajit Pawar’s death, speculation has intensified that a formal announcement on an NCP merger could come in the second week of February, after the conclusion of local body elections. Alongside Sharad Pawar, names such as Supriya Sule and Praful Patel are widely seen as potential leaders of a reunited party. Sunetra Pawar’s elevation as Deputy Chief Minister has added a new dimension to these calculations, though her long-term organisational role within a merged NCP remains an open question.
Who Stands to Gain from an NCP Merger?
The critical issue, however, is not simply whether reunification will occur, but who stands to benefit most from it. Many political observers argue that an NCP merger would disproportionately help the Sharad Pawar faction. Since the split, NCP (Sharad Pawar) has operated without the party name and symbol, weakening its organisational identity. Reunification would restore both, allowing Sharad Pawar to reassert his authority over the party’s historic base and networks.
Electoral considerations reinforce this view. While Ajit Pawar’s faction performed better in recent contests after aligning with the BJP, Sharad Pawar’s enduring influence in western Maharashtra’s cooperative sector and the so-called sugar belt remains significant. A united NCP would consolidate these voter bases, potentially reversing the BJP’s recent gains in the region. Analysts note that such a configuration could bring together a bloc of nine Lok Sabha MPs and a substantial share of Maharashtra’s MLAs, materially altering the balance within both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition MVA.
Alliance politics further complicate the merger calculus. At present, NCP (Sharad Pawar) is part of the MVA with the Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), while Ajit Pawar’s faction has been aligned with the BJP-led Mahayuti since 2023. A merger would not automatically force the united party to exit the MVA or remain within the Mahayuti. Coalition membership in India is a political decision rather than a legal requirement, leaving the reunited NCP free to reaffirm, renegotiate or rethink its alliances.
Ajit Pawar’s faction would also gain from reunification, though less dramatically. It already controls the party name, symbol and enjoys recent institutional advantages. Unity would provide organisational cohesion at a moment of leadership transition following Ajit Pawar’s death. At the same time, a merger would dilute the faction’s distinct identity built around its BJP alignment, reducing the leverage it once derived from operating as a separate political force.
For the BJP, an NCP merger carries mixed implications. A united NCP would restore Sharad Pawar-style vote consolidation in western Maharashtra, neutralising the opposition fragmentation that followed the 2023 split. While a larger ally could offer short-term stability within the Mahayuti, it would also be more difficult to manage. Sharad Pawar, or leaders emerging from his camp such as Supriya Sule, would not function as junior partners. For the Congress, by contrast, reunification would address persistent vote division and revive a more predictable alliance structure. Ultimately, whether the NCP merger reshapes Maharashtra’s politics will depend less on formal announcements than on the strategic choices that follow. Only time will tell.
Live Updates
- 31 Jan 2026 6:16 PM IST
Sunetra Pawar sworn in as Maharashtra’s first woman Deputy Chief Minister
Update (January 31, 2026): Sunetra Pawar was sworn in as Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister on Saturday, stepping into the role vacated by her husband Ajit Pawar, who died in a plane crash earlier this week. A Rajya Sabha MP, she was earlier elected leader of the Ajit Pawar–led NCP legislative group. At 62, she becomes the state’s first woman Deputy CM, though she will need to secure election to either the Assembly or Legislative Council within six months. Ajit Pawar’s death has also renewed focus on the split within the NCP, whose two factions recently contested local body polls together.
