From the very outset, it was apparent that in a world deeply divided due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, for the host of the G20 summit 2023, it would be well-nigh impossible to get all the 20 ministers of this elite grouping to come together for even a group photo let alone issue a joint statement. However, the managers tasked to get all the ducks in a row seemed to have grossly miscalculated the differences between the US and its European allies, on the one hand, and Russia and China, on the other. They had hoped that as India had close ties with both the US and Russia, it might be possible for them to get both sides to come together to pen a joint statement - a repetition of the Bali summit last year.
Embarrassingly, nothing like this happened.
At best, what the Indian government managed was the meeting of the members of the Quad countries, Australia, the US and Japan - much to the chagrin of Russia and China - who gleefully stood alongside India and later issued a joint statement.
Instead of buttressing India’s claims as a unifier, the Quad meeting, coming immediately after the acrimonious G20 summit 2023 meeting, may prove to be counterproductive as it was very critical of China and Russia - two countries that are important for the smooth conduct of this summit.
Russians have blamed the US and the Western powers for India’s embarrassment. Its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, in his combative speech at Raisina Dialogue organised by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), he blamed the West squarely for creating the crisis in Europe. It was here that he reiterated the fact that G20 had little to do with geopolitics and war but about the world economy. He wondered why Iraq, Syria or Afghanistan had never been discussed in past G20 meetings. He also suggested to his Indian hosts that they have worked hard to bring about peace with China. Was there a hint that its effort may diminish if India does not behave?
The US has stepped in to ensure that India does not buy this Russian narrative. The Quad meeting was hastily organised and issued a statement critical of China and Russia, which has deepened the divide in some ways. Why was the Quad meeting organised at this juncture? However, in the coming months, two members of the Quad are visiting Delhi - first the Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese and later the Japanese PM. The US has also invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi on a state visit to Washington on July 2, months before the leaders’ summit in September.
Portents of a looming diplomatic disaster were available during the crucial meeting of the finance ministers in Bengaluru, which was to take cognisance of the economic slowdown, inflation and cost of living crisis that was staring the world. Though forgotten, the G20 was meant to provide collective action to prevent the horrors of the economic meltdown that took place in 2008-2009 and mostly stayed away from conflicts and regional disputes. Instead, at the Bengaluru meeting, the US and its western allies put the blame for a stressed economy on the doorstep of Russia. Their argument was that the post-pandemic economic recovery faltered due to the invasion by Russia. The French foreign minister, Catherine Collona, again blamed Russia for the consequences every country was facing in the world. The Dutch minister, too, was unsparing when it came to attacking Russia.
Some spin doctors of the government have tried to show that the meeting between Blinken and Lavrov was an endeavour of PM Modi. In the coming days, such efforts to wean India away from its traditional friend Russia will intensify. New Delhi will be facing a plethora of difficult choices. What needs to be seen is whether it has enough diplomatic guile to ensure that it does not find itself in a difficult spot that haunts it far beyond its short G20 presidency.
Sanjay Kapoor is a Senior Journalist based out of Delhi. He is a foreign policy specialist focused on India, its neighbourhood and West Asia. He is the Founder and Editor of Hardnews Magazine. He is a Member of the Editors Guild of India (EGI) and, until recently, served as the General Secretary of EGI.