Is the Indian Navy Ready for Underwater Warfare?
China is expanding its submarine fleet. Is the Indian Navy ready for underwater warfare in the Indo-Pacific? A closer look at India’s subsurface challenges.
Indian Navy and the Underwater Warfare Deficit
The recent submarine action by the US against a vessel from Iran in the Indian Ocean has once again drawn attention to the strategic importance of subsurface capabilities in modern naval warfare. The incident highlights the growing relevance of underwater strike capabilities and covert maritime operations.
For India, whose primary maritime theatre lies in the Indian Ocean, the development of such capabilities is increasingly central to strengthening deterrence and maintaining credible counter-strike options. In this context, the preparedness and long-term planning of the Indian Navy assume particular importance as the character of naval competition continues to evolve beneath the surface.
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The strategic significance of underwater operations is not new. During the Cold War, the United States demonstrated the value of covert subsurface intelligence operations through a highly classified mission known as Operation Ivy Bells. Conducted jointly by the US Navy and intelligence agencies, the operation sought to intercept Soviet military communications by accessing an underwater cable located in the Sea of Okhotsk, a region that the Soviet Union considered among its most secure maritime zones.
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To execute the mission, a specially modified submarine, the USS Halibut, covertly entered Soviet waters. Divers deployed from the submarine installed an advanced wiretapping device around the underwater communications cable. The device recorded Soviet naval communications, enabling the United States to collect extensive intelligence on submarine deployments, naval movements and missile tests. The operation continued successfully for nearly a decade before it was compromised in 1981.
The episode remains a massive illustration of how underwater operations can shape strategic outcomes without direct confrontation. As India and Germany move closer to finalising one of India’s largest defence procurement agreements—estimated at nearly $8 billion—to advance the Project 75I and construct six next-generation conventional submarines, the broader strategic lesson is clear. Beyond fleet expansion, the evolving maritime environment demands sustained attention to underwater warfare capabilities, an area that will increasingly influence the operational effectiveness of the Indian Navy in the years ahead.
The Changing Nature of Underwater Warfare
Naval competition is no longer confined to the visible domain of surface fleets. Subsurface operations are increasingly expanding beyond their traditional role in surveillance and intelligence gathering. Modern underwater warfare capabilities now form an integral component of deterrence, offering both denial and punitive options comparable to those exercised by air and land forces. For the Indian Navy, adapting to this evolving operational environment will be essential as maritime competition intensifies in the broader Indo-Pacific region.
Three major developments underline the growing importance of underwater warfare capabilities.
First, China’s expanding submarine fleet presents a significant strategic challenge. Beijing has steadily invested in next-generation underwater platforms, including the development of advanced ballistic missile submarines such as the Type 096. These platforms are expected to be quieter and more difficult to detect, improving China’s ability to operate covertly in contested waters. According to assessments by the United States Department of Defense, China’s submarine fleet could reach approximately 65 vessels by 2025 and potentially expand to around 80 by 2030. Such growth would position China among the world’s largest submarine powers and greatly strengthen its maritime deterrence posture.
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Second, the broader maritime geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific are shifting. Regional naval forces remain unevenly prepared to counter China’s expanding underwater capabilities. Subsurface platforms can enable area-denial strategies that complicate the operational freedom of rival navies, including those of the United States and its regional partners. In the longer term, this capability could also affect the strategic environment of the Indian Ocean. As Chinese naval deployments in the region gradually expand, the ability of the Indian Navy to monitor and respond to subsurface activity will become an increasingly important element of India’s maritime security architecture.
Third, underwater infrastructure has emerged as a critical vulnerability. The global economy relies heavily on an extensive network of subsea fibre-optic cables that carry the overwhelming majority of international data traffic, financial transactions and communications. Disruption to these cables—whether by unmanned underwater vehicles, specialised naval platforms or other covert means—could have severe consequences for national communications and economic stability.
Energy infrastructure located on the seabed, including offshore pipelines, faces similar risks. The explosions that damaged the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022 highlighted the strategic implications of attacks on underwater energy networks and demonstrated how subsurface operations can have far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
Although Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions continue to dominate underwater operations, the broader evolution of subsurface warfare suggests a more complex strategic landscape. Large surface vessels alone may not be sufficient to counter these emerging challenges. Strengthening underwater capabilities, therefore, will remain a critical priority for the Indian Navy as it prepares to operate in an increasingly contested maritime environment.
Capability Gaps Beneath the Surface
In the conventional maritime domain, the Indian Navy has made measurable progress in expanding its fleet and modernising its operational capabilities. Current plans envision the induction of roughly 175–200 ships by 2035, alongside a greater emphasis on indigenous shipbuilding and technological self-reliance. However, this progress at the surface level contrasts with more serious challenges in the underwater domain, where capability gaps continue to persist.
A large portion of India’s submarine fleet is aging. Much of the current force comprises Russian-origin Kilo-class submarine vessels and German-origin Type 209 submarine submarines that have been in service for decades. Although the induction of the Scorpène-class submarine has strengthened the fleet, the pace of acquisition has been gradual. As a result, the overall underwater force structure has not expanded at the rate required to meet emerging strategic demands.
The absence of an operational nuclear-powered attack submarine presents an additional concern. Nuclear attack submarines play a central role in modern naval operations by tracking adversary submarines, targeting surface vessels and providing covert protection to carrier groups and other high-value assets. Their key advantage lies in their endurance and operational range. Unlike conventional submarines, they can remain submerged for extended periods, enabling sustained Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance missions as well as offensive operations without the need to surface frequently.
At present, the Indian Navy does not operate an active nuclear-powered attack submarine. The leased Russian vessel INS Chakra was returned in 2021 after completing its service period, leaving a temporary gap in this critical capability.
The modernisation of the submarine arm is therefore closely tied to the progress of Project 75I. The programme aims to construct six advanced conventional submarines equipped with Air Independent Propulsion systems that would allow longer underwater endurance and improved operational flexibility. Yet the project has experienced repeated delays since its conceptualisation in the late 1990s, remaining in various stages of negotiation for more than two decades. The eventual execution of this programme will be crucial for restoring balance within the submarine fleet.
Declining Mine Countermeasure Capability
Another area that warrants attention is mine warfare. Naval mines remain one of the most cost-effective tools for establishing maritime denial and controlling strategic choke points. Mines and countermeasure vessels can influence sea control by restricting an adversary’s access to critical sea lanes or ports. Equally important are mine countermeasure platforms that enable navies to detect and neutralise such threats.
In this domain, the capability of the Indian Navy has gradually diminished. The fleet of Pondicherry-class minesweeperships, which once formed the backbone of India’s mine countermeasure capability, is nearing the end of its operational life. Without timely replacement, this capability gap could affect the Navy’s ability to secure vital maritime approaches and protect critical shipping routes.
Strategic Implications
Senior naval leadership has acknowledged the evolving strategic environment. K. Swaminathan, who heads the Western Naval Command, recently noted that China’s naval posture is becoming increasingly assertive not only in the South China Sea but also in the wider Indian Ocean region. Such developments reinforce the need for sustained vigilance and capability development in the subsurface domain.
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While ongoing indigenous programmes will gradually strengthen the fleet, the broader challenge also involves adapting naval doctrine to the realities of modern maritime competition. Traditional naval thinking has focused largely on the visible projection of maritime power. However, contemporary conflicts increasingly involve covert operations, grey-zone tactics and the strategic use of subsurface platforms.
In this context, the Indian Navy may need to place greater emphasis on underwater deterrence, covert maritime operations and the ability to deny adversaries freedom of manoeuvre beneath the surface. These elements form an important part of modern naval strategy and align with classical concepts of sea power articulated by the American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan, who emphasised the decisive role of naval strength in securing control of the seas.
Preparing for the Next Phase of Maritime Competition
More than five decades after its decisive role in the Indo-Pakistan War of 1971, the Indian Navy now faces a markedly different strategic environment. The evolving dynamics of maritime competition in the Indo-Pacific suggest that future conflicts may increasingly extend into the underwater domain.
Strengthening subsurface capabilities, modernising the submarine fleet and developing effective underwater deterrence will therefore be essential if India is to maintain credible maritime influence and respond effectively to emerging challenges in the region.
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